ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.8 – 60.71

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±14.7

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 27.72Rank 12Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5125Hawks on the Horizon

Provisional

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 20.73Rank 21Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 48.35Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.2 ±15.6

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -60.54Rank 25Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 104.18Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 17.07Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 5125, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1625, 5125, 171

Auto

37.9 39%

Teleop

50.7 52%

Endgame

8.8 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 2338, 2151

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10029, 2338, 2151

Auto

20.6 32%

Teleop

8.7 13%

Endgame

35.2 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score96.8pts

Blue projected score60.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.1
Score range: 21–137
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 222.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.6Season APEX305.2

37.9Auto20.6

50.7Teleop8.7

8.8Endgame35.2

80Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	36
teleop	67	89
endgame	58	44
foul	15	0
total	158	169

Result

Final score

158 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 84.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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