ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.33 – 26.94

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 150.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±13.5

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 26.07Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX -3.83Rank 18Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 73.09Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.4 ±41.9

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 52.86Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -34.73Rank 23Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 8.81Rank 22Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 648, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 648, 111

Auto

26.1 30%

Teleop

70.8 80%

Endgame

-8.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 9988, 2039

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4655, 9988, 2039

Auto

5.7 18%

Teleop

2.9 9%

Endgame

23.5 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score26.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.4
Score range: -13–135
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 223.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX277.4

26.1Auto5.7

70.8Teleop2.9

-8.7Endgame23.5

192Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	34
teleop	194	55
endgame	78	7
foul	0	0
total	328	96

Result

Final score

328 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 150.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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