ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

263.35 – 271.77

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 385

Prediction missed · off by 148.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503 ±11.7

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 15.28Rank 13Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 64.9Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 183.17Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±12.4

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 89.28Rank 11Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 40.85Rank 15Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 141.64Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 171, 2338, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 171, 2338, 10435

Auto

32.5 12%

Teleop

139.2 53%

Endgame

93.4 35%

Strengths

· 10435 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2290, 11195, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2290, 11195, 2194

Auto

28.4 11%

Teleop

178.4 69%

Endgame

50.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score263.4pts

Blue projected score271.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.4
Score range: 227–308
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 833 vs event baseline 198.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503Season APEX416.9

32.5Auto28.4

139.2Teleop178.4

93.4Endgame50.2

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	80
teleop	243	247
endgame	136	58
foul	0	0
total	448	385

Result

Final score

448 – 385

Prediction missed · off by 148.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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