ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.25 – 147.51

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.1 ±12.9

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 36.58Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 21.26Rank 12Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX -19.59Rank 18Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±12.2

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 67.55Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 54.53Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 25.43Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 1625, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 167, 1625, 648

Auto

6.9 15%

Teleop

28.9 62%

Endgame

10.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8880, 4096, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8880, 4096, 2358

Auto

39.3 28%

Teleop

42.6 30%

Endgame

59.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score38.3pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.3
Score range: 0–186
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 211.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.1Season APEX472.5

6.9Auto39.3

28.9Teleop42.6

10.8Endgame59.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	32
teleop	68	192
endgame	7	0
foul	0	15
total	119	239

Result

Final score

119 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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