ROCK RIVER ROBOTICS OFF-SEASON COMPETITION

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.55 – 118.34

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±41.2

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -4.15Rank 23Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 208.8Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 74.9Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±13.3

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 59.38Rank 17Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 83.51Rank 10Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -24.55Rank 25Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9988, 10435, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.6 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 10435, 4096

Auto

35.5 13%

Teleop

171.4 61%

Endgame

74.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 112, 10029

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 112, 10029

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

74.8 62%

Endgame

27.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score279.6pts

Blue projected score118.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.2
Score range: 73–325
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 251.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.7Season APEX210.5

35.5Auto18.5

171.4Teleop74.8

74.9Endgame27.8

119Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	15
teleop	124	26
endgame	64	32
foul	0	0
total	192	73

Result

Final score

192 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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