Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.15 – 200.59

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±11

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 1.56Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 106.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 171.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.7 ±11.6

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 34.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 69.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 96.94Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8719, 2040, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 2040, 4143

Auto

64.2 23%

Teleop

151.9 55%

Endgame

57.6 21%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6651, 4655, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 4655, 2861

Auto

33.7 17%

Teleop

114.8 58%

Endgame

47.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score279.2pts

Blue projected score200.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.6
Score range: 169–311
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX406.7

64.2Auto33.7

151.9Teleop114.8

57.6Endgame47.9

87Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	111	23
endgame	32	4
foul	0	0
total	177	45

Result

Final score

177 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 pts

Match videos

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