Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.85 – 217.96

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 166.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655.1 ±11

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 271.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 11.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 149.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.2 ±11.7

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 105.45Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 74.94Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2481, 7417, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2481, 7417, 1756

Auto

101.3 24%

Teleop

234.9 55%

Endgame

91.3 21%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1736, 1625, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 1625, 4096

Auto

37.9 18%

Teleop

123.2 58%

Endgame

49.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score432.9pts

Blue projected score218pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.9
Score range: 186–465
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655.1Season APEX548.2

101.3Auto37.9

234.9Teleop123.2

91.3Endgame49.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	54
teleop	14	140
endgame	71	51
foul	20	10
total	136	255

Result

Final score

136 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 166.9 pts

Match videos

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