Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.27 – 113.93

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.7 ±11.6

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 30.05Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 66.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 92.94Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±14.6

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 24.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 45.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 43.85Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6651, 4655, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 4655, 2861

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

107.1 57%

Endgame

44.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3488, 4213, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3488, 4213, 8096

Auto

16.3 15%

Teleop

66.0 61%

Endgame

25.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.3pts

Blue projected score113.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.3
Score range: 81–222
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 182.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.7Season APEX272.8

36Auto16.3

107.1Teleop66

44.8Endgame25.4

19Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	120	109
endgame	55	28
foul	15	0
total	212	159

Result

Final score

212 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Match videos

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