Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.2 – 164.52

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±11

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 5.45Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 110.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 173.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337 ±14.1

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 40.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 41.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 83.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8719, 2040, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 2040, 4143

Auto

62.8 22%

Teleop

158.9 56%

Endgame

61.8 22%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7848, 4423, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7848, 4423, 8020

Auto

19.6 12%

Teleop

96.9 60%

Endgame

44.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score289.2pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.7
Score range: 132–322
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX337

62.8Auto19.6

158.9Teleop96.9

61.8Endgame44.2

94Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	30
teleop	117	41
endgame	37	28
foul	5	5
total	232	104

Result

Final score

232 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Match videos

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