Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.74 – 138.62

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.2 ±11.7

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 32.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 100.77Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 70.44Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±12.7

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 45.53Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 22.89Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 70.2Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1736, 1625, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 1625, 4096

Auto

38.7 20%

Teleop

118.3 61%

Endgame

38.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 8029, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 8029, 9082

Auto

20.8 15%

Teleop

68.9 50%

Endgame

46.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.7pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.1
Score range: 106–237
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.2Season APEX226.5

38.7Auto20.8

118.3Teleop68.9

38.1Endgame46.8

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	44
teleop	132	107
endgame	84	24
foul	0	5
total	257	180

Result

Final score

257 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Match videos

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