Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

465.85 – 136.96

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655.1 ±11

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 283.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 21.49Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 160.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±12.8

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 28.03Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 72.14Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 36.79Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2481, 7417, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2481, 7417, 1756

Auto

101.1 22%

Teleop

260.0 56%

Endgame

100.5 22%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 6237, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 6237, 5442

Auto

14.1 11%

Teleop

80.1 64%

Endgame

30.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score465.9pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 328.9
Score range: 104–499
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655.1Season APEX526.7

101.1Auto14.1

260Teleop80.1

100.5Endgame30.6

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	18
teleop	127	92
endgame	54	77
foul	10	0
total	296	187

Result

Final score

296 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 pts

Match videos

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