Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.38 – 420.98

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.2 ±11.7

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 39.27Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 106.22Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 77.89Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655.1 ±11

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 7.41Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 266.96Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 146.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1736, 1625, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 1625, 4096

Auto

46.7 22%

Teleop

120.1 55%

Endgame

50.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7417, 2481, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

421 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 2481, 1756

Auto

90.1 22%

Teleop

228.5 55%

Endgame

94.6 23%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score223.4pts

Blue projected score421pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.6
Score range: 190–454
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.2Season APEX655.1

46.7Auto90.1

120.1Teleop228.5

50.2Endgame94.6

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	94
teleop	67	201
endgame	47	55
foul	20	0
total	186	350

Result

Final score

186 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Match videos

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