Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.25 – 261.62

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.2 ±11.7

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 40.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 107.38Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 79.4Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±11

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -4.91Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 100.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 165.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1736, 1625, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 1625, 4096

Auto

41.6 19%

Teleop

128.1 58%

Endgame

50.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8719, 2040, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 2040, 4143

Auto

58.9 23%

Teleop

145.0 56%

Endgame

53.3 21%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.3pts

Blue projected score261.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 194–295
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.2Season APEX541.8

41.6Auto58.9

128.1Teleop145

50Endgame53.3

0Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	63
teleop	77	138
endgame	54	83
foul	0	0
total	206	284

Result

Final score

206 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Match videos

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