Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.08 – 152.76

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.7 ±11.6

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 24.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 59.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 87.46Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±12.8

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 32.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 77Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 43.24Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6651, 4655, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 4655, 2861

Auto

31.0 18%

Teleop

97.7 58%

Endgame

40.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 6237, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 6237, 5442

Auto

18.0 12%

Teleop

88.1 61%

Endgame

38.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.1pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 120–205
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.7Season APEX526.7

31Auto18

97.7Teleop88.1

40.1Endgame38.8

8Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	24
teleop	167	74
endgame	39	55
foul	0	0
total	260	153

Result

Final score

260 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 pts

Match videos

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