Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.72 – 107.45

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 148.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390 ±12.9

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 21.02Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 21.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 47.18Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538 ±11.6

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 35.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 28.88Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 42.86Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8719, 1756, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 1756, 648

Auto

6.3 8%

Teleop

49.9 64%

Endgame

22.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8029, 9082, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 9082, 2481

Auto

39.9 40%

Teleop

51.2 52%

Endgame

8.2 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.7pts

Blue projected score107.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 64–133
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390Season APEX538

6.3Auto39.9

49.9Teleop51.2

22.1Endgame8.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	94
teleop	72	150
endgame	60	64
foul	0	5
total	182	313

Result

Final score

182 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 148.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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