Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.17 – 165.59

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.2 ±12.8

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 151.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 1.94Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 35.89Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.9 ±13.5

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 31.16Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 102.79Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 31.64Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 7472, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 7472, 4213

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

102.8 55%

Endgame

57.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4787, 1625, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4787, 1625, 648

Auto

36.1 23%

Teleop

81.7 52%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.2pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 133–222
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 180.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.2Season APEX382.9

27.6Auto36.1

102.8Teleop81.7

57.6Endgame38.8

86Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	35
teleop	183	74
endgame	85	32
foul	0	0
total	309	141

Result

Final score

309 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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