Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.92 – 92.59

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±14.4

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 166.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 5.54Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 82.78Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±14.1

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 44.83Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 6.6Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 41.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 4156, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 4156, 2861

Auto

54.3 22%

Teleop

146.6 59%

Endgame

46.2 19%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8096, 8719, 4423

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8096, 8719, 4423

Auto

15.5 16%

Teleop

62.4 65%

Endgame

17.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score254.9pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.3
Score range: 61–287
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX249.7

54.3Auto15.5

146.6Teleop62.4

46.2Endgame17.9

39Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	25
teleop	182	41
endgame	81	38
foul	30	0
total	345	104

Result

Final score

345 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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