Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.92 – 131.21

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.8 ±14.1

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 67.88Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 24.65Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 23.39Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±12.2

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 35.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 70.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 25.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9082, 6651, 3488

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 6651, 3488

Auto

14.4 12%

Teleop

68.4 58%

Endgame

34.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4645, 4655, 7417

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4645, 4655, 7417

Auto

29.5 24%

Teleop

67.8 54%

Endgame

28.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.9pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.3
Score range: 83–164
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 180.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.8Season APEX368

14.4Auto29.5

68.4Teleop67.8

34.8Endgame28.2

20Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	11
teleop	99	54
endgame	32	30
foul	0	5
total	154	100

Result

Final score

154 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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