Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.88 – 112.06

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±12.2

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 43.28Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 28.6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±14.9

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 3.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 64.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 44.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 5442, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 5442, 6651

Auto

21.0 22%

Teleop

62.0 64%

Endgame

14.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2039, 4655, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2039, 4655, 4213

Auto

16.0 16%

Teleop

54.4 55%

Endgame

28.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.9pts

Blue projected score112.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 69–147
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX376

21Auto16

62Teleop54.4

14.5Endgame28.6

27Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	32	33
endgame	10	36
foul	0	15
total	62	102

Result

Final score

62 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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