Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.82 – 199.62

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.1 ±11

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 13.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 78.37Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 104.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.8 ±12.8

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 76.24Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 48.76Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 74.62Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 8020, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 8020, 2040

Auto

50.4 26%

Teleop

102.7 54%

Endgame

38.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6237, 3067, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 3067, 4096

Auto

14.4 7%

Teleop

118.0 59%

Endgame

66.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.8pts

Blue projected score199.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 164–232
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 180.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.1Season APEX542.8

50.4Auto14.4

102.7Teleop118

38.4Endgame66.3

79Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	16
teleop	160	68
endgame	67	68
foul	0	5
total	284	157

Result

Final score

284 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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