Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.1 – 137.78

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.6 ±11

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 70.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 25.55Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 167.79Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.1 ±12.7

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 68.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 24.72Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 44.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4655, 6651, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 6651, 4143

Auto

45.5 18%

Teleop

156.7 62%

Endgame

49.5 20%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9082, 7417, 2022

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 7417, 2022

Auto

24.5 19%

Teleop

69.0 53%

Endgame

36.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.1pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.3
Score range: 106–296
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.6Season APEX232.1

45.5Auto24.5

156.7Teleop69

49.5Endgame36.8

14Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	16
teleop	92	68
endgame	70	34
foul	5	10
total	246	128

Result

Final score

246 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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