Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.42 – 369.32

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.7 ±15.1

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 27.77Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 36.04Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -5.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.2 ±14.4

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 81.56Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -0.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 288.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4787, 4423, 7472

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4787, 4423, 7472

Auto

1.7 3%

Teleop

34.9 57%

Endgame

24.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2861, 2039, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.3 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 2039, 2481

Auto

87.7 24%

Teleop

197.8 54%

Endgame

82.1 22%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.4pts

Blue projected score369.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -310.9
Score range: 26–401
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.7Season APEX515.2

1.7Auto87.7

34.9Teleop197.8

24.7Endgame82.1

46Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	104
teleop	68	205
endgame	37	79
foul	0	0
total	125	388

Result

Final score

125 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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