Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.6 – 110.76

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±13.3

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 80.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.98Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 17.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.1 ±14.5

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 33Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 42.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 35.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6237, 1736, 8029

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 1736, 8029

Auto

11.8 10%

Teleop

64.5 52%

Endgame

46.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 648, 5442, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 5442, 4213

Auto

16.3 16%

Teleop

58.8 57%

Endgame

28.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.6pts

Blue projected score110.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 79–168
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.7Season APEX302.1

11.8Auto16.3

64.5Teleop58.8

46.6Endgame28.8

2Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	54	18
endgame	20	45
foul	0	35
total	104	112

Result

Final score

104 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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