Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.08 – 293.43

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±16.4

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 21.99Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 43.93Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 2.16Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.2 ±11.7

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 149.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 44.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 100.26Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 8096, 4156

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3488, 8096, 4156

Auto

16.2 25%

Teleop

49.9 78%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1756, 2022, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 2022, 1625

Auto

48.7 17%

Teleop

154.8 54%

Endgame

83.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score293.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -225.3
Score range: 36–325
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 179.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.7Season APEX519.2

16.2Auto48.7

49.9Teleop154.8

-2.2Endgame83.7

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	55
teleop	70	223
endgame	1	33
foul	10	0
total	99	311

Result

Final score

99 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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