Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
167.55 – 85.6
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
158 – 182
Prediction missed · off by 53 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.5 ±12.8
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 35.06Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 50.88Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 81.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.2 ±11
Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 66.9Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -1.77Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 20.47Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4645, 3067, 8020
59
/ 100 compatProjected
167.6 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 4645, 3067, 8020
Auto
29.8 18%
Teleop
88.3 53%
Endgame
48.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4096, 8719, 3284
42
/ 100 compatProjected
85.6 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 4096, 8719, 3284
Auto
22.8 27%
Teleop
42.4 51%
Endgame
18.2 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.13
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score167.6pts
Blue projected score85.6pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample156alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 82
- Score range
- 54–200
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
290.5Season APEX566.2
29.8Auto22.8
88.3Teleop42.4
48.7Endgame18.2
34Consistency41
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 40 |
| teleop | 68 | 122 |
| endgame | 60 | 20 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 158 | 182 |
Result
Final score
158 – 182
Prediction missed · off by 53 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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