Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.9 – 145.71

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.3 ±13.6

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 35.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 83.87Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 105.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±13.3

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 66.27Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 33.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 45.67Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4423, 2861, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4423, 2861, 2040

Auto

35.7 15%

Teleop

141.0 61%

Endgame

55.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9082, 4213, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 4213, 7848

Auto

15.4 11%

Teleop

81.1 58%

Endgame

42.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.9pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.2
Score range: 114–257
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 179.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.3Season APEX298.9

35.7Auto15.4

141Teleop81.1

55.9Endgame42.3

85Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	18
teleop	132	79
endgame	48	78
foul	0	0
total	215	175

Result

Final score

215 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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