Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.26 – 180.66

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±12.8

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -5.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 41.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 73.65Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±12.2

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 138.92Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 8.8Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 32.94Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7472, 2022, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 2022, 4655

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

60.9 56%

Endgame

26.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1756, 8029, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 8029, 5442

Auto

26.0 15%

Teleop

96.6 55%

Endgame

53.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.3pts

Blue projected score180.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.4
Score range: 78–213
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX411.3

22.3Auto26

60.9Teleop96.6

26.4Endgame53.3

32Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	40	184
endgame	41	55
foul	25	15
total	121	292

Result

Final score

121 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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