Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.97 – 309.19

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.5 ±14.4

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 22.06Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 75.66Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 15.25Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550 ±12.2

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 43.52Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 4.6Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 261.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 4096, 4156

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 4096, 4156

Auto

25.1 24%

Teleop

64.0 60%

Endgame

16.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8096, 7472, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8096, 7472, 2481

Auto

88.4 29%

Teleop

166.6 54%

Endgame

51.2 17%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score309.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -196.2
Score range: 78–344
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.5Season APEX550

25.1Auto88.4

64Teleop166.6

16.7Endgame51.2

13Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	105
teleop	82	43
endgame	9	2
foul	20	0
total	125	150

Result

Final score

125 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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