Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.78 – 157.32

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.4 ±16

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 25.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 4.88Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 173.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±14.9

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 51.68Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 102.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 3.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 2039, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3488, 2039, 4143

Auto

40.9 20%

Teleop

121.1 60%

Endgame

38.4 19%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 2040, 4156

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 2040, 4156

Auto

26.3 17%

Teleop

98.1 64%

Endgame

27.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.8pts

Blue projected score157.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.5
Score range: 125–236
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 178.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.4Season APEX323

40.9Auto26.3

121.1Teleop98.1

38.4Endgame27.9

51Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	33
teleop	84	92
endgame	32	41
foul	35	0
total	162	166

Result

Final score

162 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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