Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.66 – 142.34

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.9 ±12.9

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -4.15Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 33.69Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 66.12Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488 ±11.7

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 78.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 43.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 20Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8719, 648, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 648, 4096

Auto

25.8 28%

Teleop

42.7 47%

Endgame

23.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8020, 7848, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8020, 7848, 3284

Auto

33.3 25%

Teleop

74.9 55%

Endgame

27.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.7pts

Blue projected score142.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 64–174
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.9Season APEX488

25.8Auto33.3

42.7Teleop74.9

23.2Endgame27.2

40Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	68	94
endgame	48	28
foul	0	20
total	132	173

Result

Final score

132 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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