Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.76 – 231.22

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±14.6

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 16.89Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 34.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 30.88Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.4 ±11.7

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 63.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 73.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 94.18Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6651, 4423, 1736

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 4423, 1736

Auto

3.4 4%

Teleop

54.7 69%

Endgame

21.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 6237, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 6237, 1625

Auto

27.0 12%

Teleop

135.0 60%

Endgame

61.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.8pts

Blue projected score231.2pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.5
Score range: 51–263
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.9Season APEX649.4

3.4Auto27

54.7Teleop135

21Endgame61.4

2Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	58
teleop	87	180
endgame	52	60
foul	5	15
total	154	313

Result

Final score

154 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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