Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
99.67 – 116.15
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
133 – 78
Prediction missed · off by 35.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±15.3
Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 4.07Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 47.46Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 48.14Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.4 ±15.1
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 44.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 39.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 31.76Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2039, 8096, 3067
46
/ 100 compatProjected
99.7 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2039, 8096, 3067
Auto
25.9 28%
Teleop
41.0 45%
Endgame
24.6 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4645, 4213, 3488
46
/ 100 compatProjected
116.2 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 4645, 4213, 3488
Auto
18.2 15%
Teleop
64.8 54%
Endgame
37.6 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score99.7pts
Blue projected score116.2pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample156alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -16.5
- Score range
- 68–148
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
206.9Season APEX228.4
25.9Auto18.2
41Teleop64.8
24.6Endgame37.6
75Consistency44
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 9 | 7 |
| teleop | 101 | 50 |
| endgame | 23 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 133 | 78 |
Result
Final score
133 – 78
Prediction missed · off by 35.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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