Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.22 – 160.63

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 612.1 ±11.7

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 170Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 63.68Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -5.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.4 ±12.2

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 88.35Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 46.37Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 25.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 4096, 7472

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 4096, 7472

Auto

35.6 16%

Teleop

137.1 62%

Endgame

50.1 22%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2861, 2022, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 2022, 3284

Auto

31.2 20%

Teleop

83.6 53%

Endgame

42.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.2pts

Blue projected score160.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 129–260
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

612.1Season APEX416.4

35.6Auto31.2

137.1Teleop83.6

50.1Endgame42.2

55Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	30
teleop	148	62
endgame	35	34
foul	0	0
total	251	126

Result

Final score

251 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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