Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.84 – 320.68

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±13.3

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 43.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 30.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 77.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.7 ±14.9

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 6.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 286.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 27.76Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 7417, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5442, 7417, 6237

Auto

16.4 11%

Teleop

90.3 61%

Endgame

41.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4156, 2481, 1736

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4156, 2481, 1736

Auto

74.9 24%

Teleop

176.0 57%

Endgame

56.2 18%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.8pts

Blue projected score320.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.8
Score range: 119–353
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.7Season APEX512.7

16.4Auto74.9

90.3Teleop176

41.2Endgame56.2

32Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	84
teleop	68	174
endgame	11	72
foul	20	5
total	107	335

Result

Final score

107 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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