Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113 – 231.81

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±12.9

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 29.65Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 19.5Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 63.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.1 ±11.7

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -0.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 84.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 148.28Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 648, 3284, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 3284, 9082

Auto

29.7 25%

Teleop

59.8 51%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7472, 8020, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 8020, 1756

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

120.0 52%

Endgame

69.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score231.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.8
Score range: 81–264
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 178.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.3Season APEX442.1

29.7Auto43.3

59.8Teleop120

27.2Endgame69

11Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	35
teleop	70	118
endgame	35	45
foul	25	0
total	167	198

Result

Final score

167 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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