Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.5 – 126.63

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±15.3

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 40.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 4.09Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -11.73Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.6 ±13.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 21.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 53.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 51.74Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7848, 2039, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7848, 2039, 8719

Auto

17.4 72%

Teleop

-6.3 0%

Endgame

13.0 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3488, 4655, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3488, 4655, 4096

Auto

11.9 9%

Teleop

84.5 67%

Endgame

29.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32.5pts

Blue projected score126.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.1
Score range: 1–159
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 179.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX587.6

17.4Auto11.9

-6.3Teleop84.5

13Endgame29.3

90Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	28
teleop	44	147
endgame	15	42
foul	0	0
total	70	217

Result

Final score

70 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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