Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.69 – 89.25

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±15.3

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 53.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 23.84Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 29.28Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±14.6

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 36.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 42.82Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 9.88Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4645, 4156, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4645, 4156, 6651

Auto

26.6 25%

Teleop

71.6 67%

Endgame

8.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4423, 4213, 8029

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4423, 4213, 8029

Auto

5.0 6%

Teleop

52.6 61%

Endgame

28.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.7pts

Blue projected score89.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 56–140
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.1Season APEX237.8

26.6Auto5

71.6Teleop52.6

8.8Endgame28.6

44Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	18
teleop	17	41
endgame	5	22
foul	0	0
total	22	81

Result

Final score

22 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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