Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.79 – 199.94

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±15.4

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 105.8Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 23.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 37.96Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.5 ±12.9

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 78.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 90.2Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 30.95Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 3488, 4423

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 3488, 4423

Auto

29.7 18%

Teleop

105.2 62%

Endgame

34.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8020, 2861, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8020, 2861, 648

Auto

44.6 23%

Teleop

97.5 50%

Endgame

51.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score199.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.2
Score range: 132–235
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.5Season APEX356.5

29.7Auto44.6

105.2Teleop97.5

34.8Endgame51.5

34Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	103	96
endgame	46	50
foul	0	0
total	179	170

Result

Final score

179 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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