Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.48 – 335.65

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.3 ±11.7

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 41.65Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 91.26Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 83.57Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.1 ±11.7

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 23.61Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 147.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 165.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 1625, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5442, 1625, 8020

Auto

46.7 23%

Teleop

106.3 51%

Endgame

54.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4787, 1756, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4787, 1756, 4143

Auto

57.1 18%

Teleop

177.2 55%

Endgame

88.9 28%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score216.5pts

Blue projected score335.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.2
Score range: 184–368
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.3Season APEX588.1

46.7Auto57.1

106.3Teleop177.2

54Endgame88.9

68Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	41
teleop	155	223
endgame	31	119
foul	5	5
total	237	388

Result

Final score

237 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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