Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.93 – 58.73

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±12.2

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 100.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 16.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 24.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.4 ±12.7

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -19.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 46.2Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 32.39Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2040, 7417, 1736

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 7417, 1736

Auto

34.2 26%

Teleop

69.1 53%

Endgame

27.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7472, 9082, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 9082, 8096

Auto

28.2 46%

Teleop

32.2 53%

Endgame

0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.9pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.2
Score range: 28–173
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.8Season APEX256.4

34.2Auto28.2

69.1Teleop32.2

27.1Endgame0.3

29Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	24
teleop	128	120
endgame	39	70
foul	15	0
total	218	214

Result

Final score

218 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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