Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.34 – 115.56

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.3 ±14.9

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 42.99Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 13.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 22.72Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±12.7

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 39.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 94.08Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -18.24Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4655, 4156, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 4156, 7848

Auto

1.4 2%

Teleop

60.4 84%

Endgame

9.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4213, 2861, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 2861, 8719

Auto

24.6 22%

Teleop

60.3 54%

Endgame

26.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.3pts

Blue projected score115.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 48–147
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.3Season APEX281.5

1.4Auto24.6

60.4Teleop60.3

9.7Endgame26.4

79Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	25
teleop	104	78
endgame	29	49
foul	20	0
total	197	152

Result

Final score

197 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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