Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.15 – 234.42

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.2 ±13.5

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 103.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 20.25Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 84.34Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.7 ±12.2

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 169.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 48.32Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 16.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2040, 648, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 648, 6237

Auto

30.1 14%

Teleop

109.1 52%

Endgame

71.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4143, 4645, 7417

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 4645, 7417

Auto

56.5 25%

Teleop

127.6 56%

Endgame

45.1 20%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.2pts

Blue projected score234.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 177–265
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.2Season APEX394.7

30.1Auto56.5

109.1Teleop127.6

71.9Endgame45.1

48Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	59
teleop	123	168
endgame	47	61
foul	5	0
total	200	288

Result

Final score

200 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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