Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.32 – 45.97

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.5 ±14.4

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 100.95Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 43.63Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -3.26Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±11.6

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 6.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 16.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 23.52Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 9082, 2039

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 9082, 2039

Auto

30.7 22%

Teleop

75.8 53%

Endgame

35.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 8029, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

46 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 8029, 8096

Auto

36.3 93%

Teleop

16.0 41%

Endgame

-13.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.3pts

Blue projected score46pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.4
Score range: 16–171
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 166.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.5Season APEX401.1

30.7Auto36.3

75.8Teleop16

35.9Endgame-13.1

32Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	36
teleop	76	58
endgame	44	33
foul	20	5
total	188	132

Result

Final score

188 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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