Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.73 – 59.42

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.8 ±11.6

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 12.51Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 90.79Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 145.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.5 ±15.8

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 5.99Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -22.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 75.8Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7417, 2861, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 2861, 1756

Auto

52.3 21%

Teleop

114.2 46%

Endgame

81.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4156, 7472, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4156, 7472, 6237

Auto

5.6 9%

Teleop

29.7 50%

Endgame

24.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.7pts

Blue projected score59.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.3
Score range: 29–279
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.8Season APEX325.5

52.3Auto5.6

114.2Teleop29.7

81.5Endgame24.3

52Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	9
teleop	162	83
endgame	41	33
foul	5	0
total	261	125

Result

Final score

261 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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