Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.52 – 83.18

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±13.3

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 10.43Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 30.8Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 44.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±13.3

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.33Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 43.28Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 2.57Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7417, 4787, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 4787, 4213

Auto

13.0 17%

Teleop

37.8 50%

Endgame

24.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1736, 5442, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 5442, 8719

Auto

14.2 20%

Teleop

37.0 51%

Endgame

21.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.5pts

Blue projected score83.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.3
Score range: 48–121
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.2Season APEX257.6

13Auto14.2

37.8Teleop37

24.8Endgame21.3

31Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	8
teleop	36	35
endgame	4	11
foul	20	30
total	71	84

Result

Final score

71 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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