Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.52 – 148.43

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 91 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±13.6

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 184.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -3.06Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 14.18Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±13.3

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 45.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 50.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 52.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 8719, 3488

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 8719, 3488

Auto

48.7 26%

Teleop

94.3 50%

Endgame

47.4 25%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6651, 4787, 3067

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 4787, 3067

Auto

13.4 10%

Teleop

86.0 63%

Endgame

37.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.5pts

Blue projected score148.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.1
Score range: 118–226
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX207.6

48.7Auto13.4

94.3Teleop86

47.4Endgame37.6

101Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	9
teleop	66	30
endgame	23	5
foul	0	0
total	118	44

Result

Final score

118 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 91 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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