Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.14 – 77.76

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±15.2

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 12.13Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 44.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 18.77Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471 ±12.2

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 42.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 22.05Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 12.81Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 4423, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 4423, 648

Auto

6.3 9%

Teleop

62.4 86%

Endgame

3.6 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 5442, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4655, 5442, 8096

Auto

9.6 15%

Teleop

59.4 93%

Endgame

-5.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score77.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.6
Score range: 46–107
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX471

6.3Auto9.6

62.4Teleop59.4

3.6Endgame-5.2

23Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	39
teleop	44	136
endgame	27	37
foul	0	0
total	94	212

Result

Final score

94 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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