Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.36 – 152.52

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±12.8

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX -38.17Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 32.71Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 51.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±16

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 97.65Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 31.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 23.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 4213, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 4213, 6237

Auto

15.9 33%

Teleop

14.1 29%

Endgame

18.1 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8020, 3488, 4156

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8020, 3488, 4156

Auto

36.1 24%

Teleop

86.4 58%

Endgame

27.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.4pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.2
Score range: 16–183
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.1Season APEX285.3

15.9Auto36.1

14.1Teleop86.4

18.1Endgame27.4

69Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	99	36
endgame	58	0
foul	0	0
total	170	58

Result

Final score

170 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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