Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.05 – 219.76

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 104.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±12.2

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 146.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -14.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 25.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.7 ±12.2

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 101.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 31.39Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 87.36Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 7417, 3067

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 7417, 3067

Auto

21.5 14%

Teleop

80.7 53%

Endgame

49.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1625, 8029, 4645

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 8029, 4645

Auto

41.2 19%

Teleop

122.8 55%

Endgame

57.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157pts

Blue projected score219.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.7
Score range: 128–249
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.6Season APEX343.7

21.5Auto41.2

80.7Teleop122.8

49.6Endgame57.5

73Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	34
teleop	129	34
endgame	86	47
foul	5	5
total	266	120

Result

Final score

266 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 104.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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