Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.86 – 162.78

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 689.5 ±13.1

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 46.29Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 252.87Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 44.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.3 ±11

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 18.68Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 58.11Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 85.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4423, 2481, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4423, 2481, 4655

Auto

88.4 26%

Teleop

173.0 51%

Endgame

75.2 22%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8096, 4096, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8096, 4096, 2040

Auto

55.2 35%

Teleop

80.9 51%

Endgame

23.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score343.9pts

Blue projected score162.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.1
Score range: 134–373
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

689.5Season APEX579.3

88.4Auto55.2

173Teleop80.9

75.2Endgame23.3

56Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	19
teleop	255	76
endgame	73	17
foul	0	15
total	366	127

Result

Final score

366 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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